Casey Schmitt to hit a home runL
Jul 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 6.4020
Read original reasoning
Schmitt leads SF with 19 HR in 2026 and carries a .496 SLG and .786 OPS vs right-handed pitching. Woo has allowed 10 HR in 104.1 IP in 2026 (0.86 HR/9), and T-Mobile Park HR factor is 0.9 — both mildly suppressive. Career sample vs Woo is just 2 PA with no hits, offering no positive signal. Low confidence given park and pitcher HR profile, but Schmitt's power surge is real and +540 represents outsized upside for a 19-HR bat.
Market unavailableL
Jun 25, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
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Schmitt is the hottest Giants bat on the slate — L7d OPS of 1.150, L28d 0.771, and 16 HR on the season showing real extra-base pop. Springs is getting shelled in 2026 (5.55 ERA, 6 ER and 6 ER in last two starts), allowing hitters to do damage when they make contact. Career BvP is a tiny 3-PA sample (2026 only, 0.666 OPS) — not enough to override the season trend vs a struggling LHP. Over 1.5 TB at +114 is fair value for a hitter this hot.
Market unavailableW
Jun 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
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Schmitt is the hottest bat in the SF lineup: .293 AVG, .531 SLG, 16 HR, and a scorching L7d OPS of 1.495. No career matchup data vs Gusto, but Gusto's 7.24 ERA and pattern of allowing hard contact (2 HR in 13.2 IP, 5 ER in 4.2 IP last outing vs PHI) sets up a favorable matchup for a power hitter. Schmitt's .531 SLG means extra-base hits are a consistent outcome. loanDepot Park HR factor is 0.88, tempering HR upside, but 1.5 TB can be cleared with a single + walk or any extra-base hit. +120 offers real value given Schmitt's current form.
