Ceddanne Rafaela under 0.5 hitsW
Sep 30, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2800
Read original reasoning
Career vs Fried: 16 PA, .125 AVG, 0.250 OPS — 0 HR, minimal contact. 2026: 6 PA, 0.000 OPS; 2025: 7 PA, 0.572 OPS — the 2026 trend is clearly deteriorating. Fried's LHP angle adds platoon pressure on the right-handed Rafaela, whose vR OPS is .743 season-wide but is helpless in this specific matchup. Under at +128 is strong value.
Ceddanne Rafaela under 0.5 hitsW
Sep 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.6200
Read original reasoning
Rafaela is ice cold: L7d OPS .394, L28d OPS .620 — significant dropoff from her season .765 OPS. Only 2 career PA vs Woo (small sample, .000 OPS), and facing a pitcher who held 5 of 6 BOS hitters with career data at .000 OPS or below. +162 is strong value on a player trending hard in the wrong direction at a line of 0.5 hits.
Ceddanne Rafaela over 0.5 hitsW
Aug 28, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.4500
Read original reasoning
Rafaela is 3-for-8 (.375 AVG, 0.819 OPS) in 9 PA vs Schlittler in 2026 — the best performance of any BOS batter with meaningful sample against him. Season BA of .285 reinforces genuine contact quality. He is the one Boston hitter who has demonstrably squared up Schlittler this year. Even at -222, the 69% implied probability is supported by both career BvP and season production.
