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Throws R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-28 — 2026-09-27 · 57 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 5 past picks from 5 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
May 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6300
Patrick has posted just 16 K in 28.0 IP in 2026 (5.14 K/9). Last 3 starts: 5K, 2K, 2K — averaging only 3 Ks per outing. His 2026 BB/9 of 4.18 (13 BB/28 IP) confirms he works to contact rather than chasing strikeouts. Two of his last three starts produced 2 Ks, both well under the 4.5 line. Under 4.5 has strong multi-start backing.
Apr 28, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5700
Patrick has just 11 K in 23.0 IP in 2026 (4.3 K/9). Last 3 starts: 2 K (4 IP), 2 K (6.2 IP), 0 K (3 IP) — only 4 total Ks across those outings. He has not reached 4.5 Ks in a single 2026 start. Market -175 under reflects implied 63.7% but true probability is higher given consistent output. Under is strongly supported by recent trend.
Apr 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7500
Patrick's 2026 K/9 is just 4.26 (9 K in 19.0 IP). Last 3 starts: 2 K, 0 K, 3 K — went under 4.5 in all three. Career 2025 K/9 was 9.65 but 2026 profile shows contact-heavy approach with significantly reduced strikeout rate. No start above 3 Ks in 2026.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CutterFC | 43% | 89.9 | 29.8% | 0.318 | 86.0 | 2.7 | 11.9 | 2472 |
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 25% | 95.6 | 31.2% | 0.304 | 88.6 | -7.2 | 15.3 | 2340 |
| SinkerSI | 24% | 95.6 | 14.6% | 0.340 | 87.8 | -15.2 | 8.8 | 2153 |
| SlurveSV | 8% | 86.1 | 21.5% | 0.262 | 89.1 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 2429 |
| ChangeupCH | 1% | 90.8 | 0.0% | 0.518 | 83.7 | -10.8 | 7.8 | 2005 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Milwaukee Brewers | 57 | 6 | 106.0 | 93 | 47 | 3.40 | 1.24 |
| 2025 · Milwaukee Brewers | 27 | 23 | 119.2 | 127 | 40 | 3.53 | 1.28 |
| Career | 84 | 29 | 225.2 | 220 | 87 | 3.47 | 1.26 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 5 | 0.799 | 0.667 | 99.2 | 0.333 |
| 2026-09-24 | 5 | 0.425 | 0.000 | 92.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-20 | 5 | 0.458 | 0.000 | 69.4 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-18 | 3 | 0.043 | 0.000 | 83.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-17 | 5 | 0.342 | 0.000 | 100.7 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-12 | 5 | 0.175 | 0.200 | 117.4 | 1.000 |
| 2026-09-08 | 3 | 0.486 | 0.000 | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 4 | 0.212 | 0.000 | 62.5 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-04 | 9 | 0.290 | 0.143 | 88.4 | 0.000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 5 | 0.407 | 0.000 | 67.2 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 441 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 296 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 266 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 285 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
