Chase Burns over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7200
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Burns is running a 10.77 K/9 pace in 2026 (181 K in 151.1 IP). Even with shortened recent outings — 3.0 IP on Sep 13 (5 K) and 3.0 IP on Sep 7 (5 K) — he cleared 3.5 Ks both times. The 3.5 line is set conservatively to account for potential early exit, but his elite K rate means he hits 4+ Ks before reaching pitch limits. Cubs lineup vR is solid but he fanned 7 in 5.2 IP vs CHC on Aug 30. Line gives too much discount for inning risk.
Chase Burns over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
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Burns' 2026 K/9 is 10.68 (176 K in 148.1 IP) — elite by any measure. Last 3 starts produced 5, 7, and 5 Ks across short outings of 3.0, 5.2, and 3.2 IP. All three cleared 3.5. Even in his shortest recent outing (3.0 IP), he struck out 5. MIL batters have been dominated by Burns in 2026 limited looks: Bauers 0-for-3 (.000 OPS), Contreras 0-for-3 (.000 OPS), Frelick 0-for-3 (.000 OPS), Yelich 0-for-3 (.333 OPS). The market prices OVER 8.5 outs at -213 (68%), projecting at least a 3-inning effort — at Burns' rate, 3 IP alone projects ~3.6 Ks. Line of 3.5 is a generous number for a pitcher of this caliber regardless of outing length.
Chase Burns over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0200
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Burns carries a 10.60 K/9 rate in 2026 (171 K in 145.1 IP). His last 5 starts produced 7, 5, 8, 6, 8 Ks — all five cleared 4.5, including the 5-K outing that came in only 3.2 IP (still over the line). The 4.5 number is nearly 6 Ks below his per-9 pace. Coming off 8 days of full rest, he should be stretched out deep into this start. His Jul 28 2025 outing vs LAD: 10 K in 5.2 IP. The Dodgers home pitching situation is TBD/Sheehan opener, meaning Burns faces no pressure to abbreviate his start — his team needs length from him. Over 4.5 at +102 is exceptional value given his floor.
