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Throws R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-30 — 2026-09-23 · 20 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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No saved upcoming picks for Chris Bassitt.
Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 18 past picks from 18 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Sep 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8200
Bassitt's last 3 starts: 6K, 5K, 6K — all cleared 3.5 comfortably. His 2026 K/9 is 6.68 (72 K in 97.0 IP). The 3.5 line sits well below his recent floor. Six days of extended rest supports a deeper outing. In his Sep 11 start against this same TOR lineup he struck out 5 in 5.0 IP. 3-for-3 recent over rate is as clean a trend as you'll find at this price.
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5900
Bassitt's 2026 K/9 has dropped sharply to 6.58 (66 K in 90.1 IP), well below his 2025 rate of 8.85 K/9. Last 3 starts: 5K in 5.0 IP, 6K in 5.2 IP, 4K in 5.2 IP — averaging 5.0 Ks across outings that rarely exceed 5.2 innings. At 6.58 K/9 in a typical 5-inning outing, expected Ks are ~3.65. His NYM history (9K, 8K) came with a higher-K-rate version of Bassitt; 2026 represents a measurably diminished strikeout profile at age 37. Market prices under at -169 (62.9% implied), consistent with declining ratios. Citi Field is neutral for Ks.
Sep 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0000
Bassitt has cleared 3.5 Ks in each of his last 3 starts: 6 K vs BOS, 4 K vs ATH, 5 K vs STL. His 2026 rate of 61 K in 85.1 IP (6.44 K/9) consistently supports this floor. TOR hits .248 on the season and Bassitt comes in with 6 days of extended rest. Even money (+100) is genuine value given that pattern — the market is pricing this almost as a coin flip when recent data says it's cleared 3 of 3.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SinkerSI | 37% | 92.3 | 13.0% | 0.362 | 89.7 | -16.7 | 5.8 | 2117 |
| CurveballCU | 22% | 71.3 | 30.2% | 0.286 | 83.8 | 16.2 | -12.8 | 2328 |
| CutterFC | 20% | 90.0 | 22.7% | 0.356 | 89.3 | -1.9 | 9.9 | 2156 |
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 9% | 92.4 | 20.8% | 0.389 | 84.3 | -7.1 | 11.6 | 2152 |
| SweeperSW | 6% | 73.5 | 32.6% | 0.281 | 82.7 | 18.8 | -0.9 | 2392 |
| ChangeupCH | 5% | 85.4 | 25.9% | 0.402 | 96.4 | -16.8 | 2.0 | 1828 |
| SliderSL | 3% | 81.1 | 4.8% | 0.215 | 85.0 | 8.0 | -3.3 | 2452 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Baltimore Orioles | 20 | 18 | 102.0 | 74 | 38 | 4.41 | 1.55 |
| 2025 · Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 31 | 170.1 | 166 | 52 | 3.96 | 1.33 |
| 2024 · Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 31 | 171.0 | 168 | 70 | 4.16 | 1.46 |
| 2023 · Toronto Blue Jays | 33 | 33 | 200.0 | 186 | 59 | 3.60 | 1.18 |
| 2022 · New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 181.2 | 167 | 49 | 3.42 | 1.14 |
| 2021 · Oakland Athletics | 27 | 27 | 157.1 | 159 | 39 | 3.15 | 1.06 |
| 2020 · Oakland Athletics | 11 | 11 | 63.0 | 55 | 17 | 2.29 | 1.16 |
| 2019 · Oakland Athletics | 28 | 25 | 144.0 | 141 | 47 | 3.81 | 1.19 |
| 2018 · Oakland Athletics | 11 | 7 | 47.2 | 41 | 19 | 3.02 | 1.24 |
| 2016 · Oakland Athletics | 5 | 5 | 28.0 | 23 | 14 | 6.11 | 1.75 |
| 2015 · Oakland Athletics | 18 | 13 | 86.0 | 64 | 30 | 3.56 | 1.26 |
| 2014 · Chicago White Sox | 6 | 5 | 29.2 | 21 | 13 | 3.94 | 1.58 |
| Career | 252 | 236 | 1380.2 | 1265 | 447 | 3.70 | 1.27 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | 22 | 0.334 | 0.333 | 91.3 | 0.053 |
| 2026-09-16 | 26 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 95.1 | 0.053 |
| 2026-09-11 | 24 | 0.359 | 0.286 | 88.4 | 0.062 |
| 2026-09-05 | 26 | 0.318 | 0.227 | 86.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-08-30 | 27 | 0.407 | 0.333 | 87.4 | 0.050 |
| 2026-08-25 | 26 | 0.288 | 0.240 | 86.0 | 0.150 |
| 2026-08-19 | 24 | 0.344 | 0.364 | 88.2 | 0.059 |
| 2026-08-14 | 24 | 0.348 | 0.238 | 88.9 | 0.056 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16 | 0.436 | 0.429 | 84.6 | 0.077 |
| 2026-05-28 | 23 | 0.270 | 0.182 | 85.2 | 0.053 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 460 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 339 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 317 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 329 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
