Market unavailableW
May 29, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9520
Read original reasoning
Paddack's last 3 starts: 5 K (5.0 IP vs STL), 3 K (5.0 IP vs CLE), 1 K (2.2 IP vs PHI) — L3 average of 3.0 Ks, trending down sharply. His 2026 ERA is 6.86 with command issues (14 BB in 40.2 IP), limiting ability to generate strikeouts deep into counts. ATL is a contact-oriented lineup (.259 AVG, 5.2 R/G). Under 3.5 at -105 is strong value against a market that prices over at -164 based on season K/9 (7.75) rather than his deteriorating recent form.
Market unavailableL
May 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0400
Read original reasoning
Paddack's last 3 starts: 3K, 1K, 1K — averaging just 1.67 Ks over that stretch. His 2026 line of 30K in 35.2 IP (7.57 K/9) overstates recent output; his command has collapsed with a 7.07 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Under 3.5 at +104 has genuine value given the clear recent trend.
Market unavailableV
May 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0400
Read original reasoning
Paddack is at 23rd percentile K% in 2026 and has been historically ineffective at missing bats this season. Last 3 starts yielded only 3K (5.0 IP), 1K (2.2 IP), and 1K (4.0 IP) — a combined 5 K in 11.2 IP. His walk rate of 11 BB in 35.2 IP creates traffic without whiffs. STL lineup sits at .240 AVG/.709 OPS and is not a high-K team. Under 3.5 aligns strongly with his recent output.
