Christian Scott

Scott's 2026 K/9 sits at 10.85 (127 K in 105.1 IP), making a 4.5-K line look conservative. His two 2026 starts vs PHI produced 7 K in 5.2 IP (Jul 16) and 6 K in 4.1 IP (Jun 27) — both cleared this line comfortably. Last meaningful starts: 7 K vs NYY (Sep 13), 7 K vs SF (Sep 6). The Aug 28 outing (2 K, 5 BB) was an outlier driven by control issues, not contact suppression. PHI hitting .241 AVG with a team K rate that lines up well against a high-spin arm. Six days rest adds durability upside. Note: one sportsbook source (Sep 18) reported Zac Thornton as the NYM starter rather than Scott — this pick is contingent on Scott taking the ball as officially listed.

Scott's 2026 K/9 of 10.89 (120 K / 99.1 IP) looks strong on paper, but his last 3 outings tell a different story: 4.2 IP (7 K), 5.1 IP (2 K), 4.2 IP (6 K) — averaging just 4.7 IP per start and as few as 2 Ks in his penultimate outing. Outing length is the ceiling killer here. At under 5 innings projected, he needs a near-perfect K rate to clear 5.5. Facing a Yankees lineup that posts a .721 OPS and 4.6 R/G, with extended rest potentially working against him after a shaky August stretch (3.81 ERA, elevated BB rate at 3.99 BB/9). The under at -108 is live value against an inconsistent arm.

Scott carries a strong season K/9 (~10.79 over 94.2 IP, 113 K), but his last three starts show: 2 K (5.1 IP vs HOU), 6 K (4.2 IP vs CHW), 7 K (6.1 IP vs WSH). Recent outings are erratic — 5 BB in his last start and 4 BB the start before. The walk-heavy recent pattern eats into K opportunities, and short outings cap total Ks. Average over last 3 is 5.0 — right at or under the 5.5 line. Extended 9-day rest adds uncertainty. Under at -149 (59.9%) is fair value.