Colson Montgomery under 0.5 total basesW
Oct 10, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
Read original reasoning
Career vs Williams: 11 PA, .000 AVG, 0.182 OPS, 0 HR. In 2026 specifically: 9 PA, 0.111 OPS — Montgomery is 0-for in hits against Williams this season with zero extra-base hits across 11 career plate appearances. Zero total bases in 9 chances this year alone is definitive. Williams' 12.29 K/9 makes this a swing-and-miss matchup for a batter who also hits just .197/.282/.403 vs RHP this season. At -152 (60.2% implied), the market still undervalues a completely one-sided BvP record.
Colson Montgomery under 0.5 hitsL
Oct 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7400
Read original reasoning
Montgomery is 2-for-11 (.200 AVG, 0.573 OPS, 0 HR) in 11 PA vs Messick in 2026 — a meaningful sample showing limited contact. His season batting average is .197, reflecting a high-strikeout profile. His vL OPS is 0.778, which is below league average against left-handed pitching, and Messick is a LHP with 2.56 ERA and 193 Ks on the season. Two independent signals (weak BvP, LHP platoon disadvantage) converge on the under.
Colson Montgomery under 0.5 hitsW
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7200
Read original reasoning
Montgomery cannot buy a hit against Gavin Williams. Career: 9 PA, .000 AVG, 0.111 OPS. In 2026 alone: 7 PA, 0.000 OPS — zero hits in seven plate appearances this year. His season slash of .206/.291/.425 already reflects a high-K, high-swing-and-miss profile, and Williams' 12.15 K/9 exploits exactly that. Market prices under at -139 (58.1%) but the BvP data is more damning than that implies. Williams vs Montgomery is one of the cleanest strikeout/hitless matchups on the slate.
