Corey Seager to hit a home runW
Sep 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 4.2990
Read original reasoning
Seager has 19 HR on the 2026 season with a .418 SLG. His career production vs Kremer is strong (.500 AVG, 1.056 OPS in 9 PA). Target Field is a neutral HR park (factor 1.0). Kremer has allowed 17 HR in 83.1 IP in 2026 — a rate of roughly 1.84 HR/9, above league average. The +330 price on an anytime HR reflects legitimate long-shot odds, but the combination of Seager's power, his BvP success, and Kremer's HR vulnerability makes this a worthwhile LOW-confidence speculative play consistent with the committee's over 8.5 lean.
Corey Seager over 0.5 hitsW
Sep 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.3900
Read original reasoning
Seager is 9 PA career vs Kremer with a .500 AVG and 1.056 OPS — and this success is spread across three separate seasons: 1.334 OPS in 2022, 0.666 OPS in 2023, and 1.167 OPS in 2024. The trend is consistently productive against this pitcher. His 2026 season .226 AVG is middling, but BvP data here is the primary signal and it points clearly over. At -256 the market agrees, but this is still the strongest data-backed play on the board.
Corey Seager under 1.5 total basesW
Sep 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6100
Read original reasoning
Career vs Gray: .250 AVG, 0.690 OPS across 14 PA — a meaningful sample with zero career home runs and no extra-base power production in this matchup. Under 1.5 total bases requires holding Seager to 0 or 1 single, which Gray has done consistently in this career matchup. Season: .234 AVG with a modest ISO profile, and Globe Life Field's HR factor of 0.92 further suppresses extra-base hit potential. Gray has allowed just 15 HR in 156.2 IP in 2026 (0.86 HR/9) — below league average. Under -164 reflects a genuine edge given the career sample.
