David Peterson under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7100
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Peterson's last 3 starts: 4 K in 4.1 IP, 4 K in 3.2 IP, 6 K in 5.0 IP. Two of three are under 4.5, and both under outings came with dangerously short IP totals. His 5.28 ERA and 59 BB in 131.1 IP in 2026 point to command struggles and early exits. ATL lineup has .247 team AVG but Olson (1.029 OPS career vs Peterson), Acuña (.945 OPS career) and Riley (.876 OPS career) can chase him early. Can't accumulate Ks if he's out by the 4th. Under at -141 reflects market lean; data backs it.
David Peterson over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 2, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8600
Read original reasoning
Peterson's 2026 K rate: 109 K in 123.1 IP (7.96 K/9). His last two full outings produced 6 K (5 IP vs CIN) and 8 K (6 IP vs SEA) — both over 4.5. The Aug 17 start vs CHW (1.1 IP, 1 K) was an aberration cut short early and shouldn't weigh heavily against the trend. MIL lineup features several batters with weak BvP vs Peterson: William Contreras .182 AVG / 0.539 OPS in 14 PA, Christian Yelich .125 AVG / 0.425 OPS in 10 PA, Brice Turang 0-for-6 with 0.000 OPS career. Peterson's primary risk is volume — if MIL chases him early (5.11 ERA), the K total caps. The MIL -1.5 pick from the main committee adds that caution, hence MEDIUM.
David Peterson under 5.5 strikeoutsL
Aug 28, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6400
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Peterson's season K/9 is 7.83 (103 K in 118.1 IP), but his three starts vs CIN tell a different story: 1K in 3.0 IP (Jun 15 2026), 4K in 5.0 IP (May 26 2026), 4K in 5.1 IP (Sep 05 2025) — averaging under 3.5 Ks per CIN outing. CIN team K rate of 8.17 K/9 indicates they are not a swing-and-miss lineup. Peterson also threw only 1.1 IP in his Aug 17 start (possible workload concern), and his ERA sits at 5.17 in 2026. The CIN matchup pattern is the dominant signal here — his strikeout output craters against this specific opponent.
