Davis Martin

Martin's last 3 starts: 0 K, 1 K, 3 K — averaging just 1.33 Ks per outing. In three career matchups vs DET: 4 K, 3 K, 2 K. Full 2026 K/9 of 7.34 is respectable but his recent regression is stark and sustained. DET team K rate doesn't project a strikeout-heavy environment. The 3.5 line is generous given his last six appearances have produced zero outings exceeding it.

Martin's last 3 starts: 1K (Sep 9, 5.0 IP), 3K (Sep 2, 5.2 IP), 3K (Aug 13, 2.0 IP) — averaging 2.3 Ks over that stretch. His CLE-specific history is equally thin: 1K in 1.0 IP (Aug 9 2026), 0K in 3.1 IP (Jul 2 2026). Season K/9 of approximately 7.65 (115 K / 135.2 IP) overstates his current punch-out rate. The market prices this near-even at -103 under, but the consistent recent suppression of his K output — particularly vs. this opponent — tilts the edge to the under.

Martin's 2026 K/9 is 7.86 (114 K in 130.2 IP), projecting roughly 5 K per full outing. But his last 3 starts have been drastically shortened: 1.0 IP (Aug 09), 2.0 IP (Aug 13), 5.2 IP (Sep 02). Even in his best recent outing he managed only 3 K. The pattern of abbreviated starts caps his K ceiling well below 4.5. PIT averages 4.8 R/G with solid lineup depth — not a swing-and-miss unit likely to inflate his K count in limited innings.