Drake Baldwin over 1.5 total basesL
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1800
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Baldwin is 2-for-6 (.333 AVG, 1.333 OPS) career vs Imanaga with 1 HR in that sample. More importantly, his 2026 line vs Imanaga is 3 PA with a 1.666 OPS — actively punishing him this season. Season stats back it up: .280/.354/.456, 24 HR in 573 PA. Over 1.5 total bases at +118 offers positive expected value for a power hitter who has demonstrated a clear ability to do damage against this specific left-hander. Wrigley HR factor 1.1 adds modest upside.
Drake Baldwin over 1.5 total basesL
Aug 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8500
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Baldwin has torched Pfaadt across every sample available: 8 PA career, .625 AVG, 1.625 OPS, 1 HR. Broken down: 2025 line was 1.200 OPS (5 PA); 2026 is 2.334 OPS (3 PA) — escalating dominance. Season numbers are strong: .274/.360/.452, 20 HR, L28d 0.892 OPS. With Pfaadt pitching to contact and Baldwin posting a 1.625 career OPS against him, the path to 2+ total bases (double, HR, or two singles) is well-supported by the historical matchup. -118 is a fair price for a batter who is 5-for-8 lifetime against this pitcher.
Drake Baldwin over 1.5 total basesW
Aug 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
Read original reasoning
Career vs Eury Pérez: .500 AVG, 2.125 OPS, 2 HR in 8 PA — the most dominant BvP matchup on the board. 2025 sample (5 PA): 2.600 OPS. 2026 sample (3 PA): 1.167 OPS. Consistent destruction across years. Season OPS of .461 with 20 HR. At +110, the market is underpricing this matchup edge significantly.
