Drew Rasmussen

Rasmussen has gone over 5.5 Ks in each of his last 3 starts: 6 K (7 IP vs CLE Oct 18), 7 K (6 IP vs CLE Oct 12), 10 K (8 IP vs NYY Oct 3). 197 Ks in 193 IP on the season. His only appearance vs MIL in 2026 (Apr 1) produced 8 Ks in 5 IP. At 5.5, this line is well below his recent ceiling, and even shortened postseason outings have cleared it in all three recent games.

Rasmussen's 2026 K/9 sits at 9.24 (191 K in 186 IP). Last 3 starts: 7, 10, 11 Ks — elite recent form. vs CLE this year: 7K (Oct 12, 6 IP), 9K (Jul 26, 7 IP), 6K (Apr 29, 5 IP). Two of three CLE outings exceeded 5.5, and his NYY playoff run (10K, 11K) shows peak-form velocity. Guardians offensive drought continues: .115 xBA in Game 3, only 6 walks in first 4 games. Outs line at -154 implies market expects 6+ innings, which at his K/9 easily crosses 5.5. Only risk: 26 days extended rest may take an inning to find rhythm.

Rasmussen's 2026 K/9 is 9.2 (184 K in 180.0 IP). Last two full outings: 10 K vs NYY (Oct 03, 8.0 IP) and 11 K vs NYY (Sep 22, 6.2 IP). Critically, vs CLE specifically in 2026: 9 K on Jul 26 and 6 K on Apr 29 — both already clearing 5.5. CLE posts a .696 OPS and .239 AVG as a team, one of the weaker offensive units in the field. His 2.55 ERA and 0.91 first-inning WHIP signal he commands his stuff from pitch one. In 13 consecutive NRFI starts he's been locking lineups down early. At a juice of -118, this line is a gift given a K/9 that projects 6+ Ks in any 6-inning outing.