Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 12, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8500
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Rasmussen's 2026 K/9 is 9.2 (184 K in 180.0 IP). Last two full outings: 10 K vs NYY (Oct 03, 8.0 IP) and 11 K vs NYY (Sep 22, 6.2 IP). Critically, vs CLE specifically in 2026: 9 K on Jul 26 and 6 K on Apr 29 — both already clearing 5.5. CLE posts a .696 OPS and .239 AVG as a team, one of the weaker offensive units in the field. His 2.55 ERA and 0.91 first-inning WHIP signal he commands his stuff from pitch one. In 13 consecutive NRFI starts he's been locking lineups down early. At a juice of -118, this line is a gift given a K/9 that projects 6+ Ks in any 6-inning outing.
Drew Rasmussen over 6.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1200
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Rasmussen's 2026 K/9 is 9.1 (174 K in 172 IP). His Sep 22 start vs this exact NYY lineup: 11 Ks in 6.2 IP. TB's bullpen is severely depleted — McClanahan, Tyler Wells, and Cleavinger all on 15-Day IL — so Rasmussen will likely be pushed into a 6+ IP workload to protect the pen. Yankees are without Aaron Judge (10-Day IL), thinning their lineup. If Rasmussen pitches 6.5 IP at 9.1 K/9, that projects to ~6.6 Ks, right at the line. His ceiling ceiling is demonstrated; +112 odds reflect market uncertainty on workload length, not on his K rate itself.
Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6700
Read original reasoning
Rasmussen sits at 9.0 K/9 on the season (160 K in 160.1 IP) with a 2.81 ERA. Last 3 starts: 4K, 7K, 6K — averaging 5.67, right at the line but the trend supports clearing 5.5 against a weak Oakland lineup (.245 team AVG, 4.3 R/G). Six days extended rest adds velocity freshness. The Aug 12 matchup vs ATH yielded only 3K in 5 IP, which is the primary risk, but that was a shortened outing (2 ER in 5 IP). Full-game projection with this lineup and his season K rate tilts over.
