Dustin May over 2.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 6, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6900
Read original reasoning
May's 2026 K/9 is 8.9 (144 K in 145.2 IP), and his SD-specific track record is outstanding: 6 K (7 IP), 9 K (9 IP), 7 K (6 IP) in three 2026 regular season starts against this same Padres lineup. The outs market prices Over 8.5 outs at -137, suggesting the market expects ~3+ innings — at 8.9 K/9 that projects to ~3 Ks in expectation, right above the 2.5 line. Extended rest (10 days) supports a better outing than his ragged late-season appearances (7 runs across last 7.1 IP). Risk: early hook if Padres score quickly on home field, which could strand him short of 3 Ks. Line of 2.5 is low enough to hold value even with a moderate outing.
Dustin May under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
Read original reasoning
May's last three outings: 4 K in 2.1 IP, 6 K in 6.0 IP, 5 K in 3.2 IP. The alternating blow-up pattern is a red flag — his Sep 18 outing lasted just 2.1 innings. If he repeats that exit pattern vs a Citizens Bank Park PHI lineup, he reaches 4 Ks roughly 1.7 K/IP, making 3.5 the barrier. His 2026 ERA of 4.61 and 47 BB in 140.2 IP reflects command inconsistency that can spiral against an experienced home crowd lineup. Under -147 reflects the market respecting his K/9 (8.77), but the outing-length variance is the real edge here.
Dustin May under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7600
Read original reasoning
May averages 5.0 IP/start in 2026 across 28 GS and 138.1 IP. At his 8.7 K/9 rate over 5.0 IP that projects to ~4.8 Ks per outing — below the 5.5 line. Last 3 starts: 6 K (6.0 IP), 5 K (3.2 IP), 4 K (4.1 IP). He only cleared 5.5 in his longest outing. K output is tightly IP-dependent and his average start length does not support clearing this number. Market's -132 for under reflects the lean.
