Dylan Cease under 7.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
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Cease's 2026 K/9 of 12.79 (236 K in 166.1 IP) is elite, but his last 3 starts produced 9, 6, and 4 Ks — averaging 6.3 and going under 7.5 in two of three. Outings have also been short (5.0, 5.0, 6.0 IP), capping counting stats. His previous TEX outing (Jun 27 2026) delivered 10 Ks but lasted only 4.2 IP before an early exit — showing upside but also outing-length risk. Under-7.5 outs prop (-175 for over 17.5 outs) signals market expects roughly 6 innings, not a deep gem. Market already leans under at -147. Two of last three starts cash the under.
Dylan Cease under 8.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6500
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Cease's 2026 season K rate is elite (227 K in 161.1 IP), but his last 3 starts tell a different story: 6K in 5.0 IP, 4K in 6.0 IP, 8K in 6.0 IP — averaging just 6.0 Ks per outing and never exceeding 8. The 8.5 line requires a career-type performance, and his recent trend runs counter to that. The shortened 5-inning outing Sept 07 with 4 ER adds outing-length risk. BAL team strikeout rate supports Cease's ability, but the line is set too high relative to recent outputs. Under at -154 (60.6% implied).
Dylan Cease over 7.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9600
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Cease carries a 2.25 ERA and 221 K across 156.1 IP in 2026 — a K/9 of 12.73. Against this same ATH lineup on Mar 28 2026, he punched out 12 batters in 5.1 IP. The recent 4 K outing vs CLE is an outlier in an otherwise dominant season: the two starts flanking it yielded 8 K each. ATH are 57-87 with a weak lineup (.247 AVG). Market is essentially a coin flip (-133/-104), pricing in the recent low-K game, but Cease's season workload and matchup history vs Oakland point clearly over. Line of 7.5 sits below his season rate. Cease has also been going 6+ IP consistently, giving him the volume needed.
