Erick Fedde under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6000
Read original reasoning
Fedde's 2026 K/9 is 6.43 (88 K in 123.1 IP) and his three most recent starts vs MIN tell the real story: 4K (Aug 29), 2K (Jun 03), 2K (Mar 29 2025) — averaging 2.67 Ks per outing against this exact opponent. His last three starts overall: 4K, 2K, 5K. Recent outings are also short (4.0–5.0 IP), capping his volume ceiling. Under 3.5 at -167 reflects the market consensus and is well-supported by the BvP record.
Erick Fedde over 3.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 26, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1200
Read original reasoning
Fedde posted 66 K in 93.0 IP in 2026 (6.39 K/9). Last 3 starts: 6, 3, 4 Ks — average of 4.3, above the 3.5 line. Two of three recent starts cleared this number. HOU lineup carries a .242 team AVG and 4.39 BB/9 — a lineup that can be set down in order. With bullpen depletion noted after Saturday, Fedde may be incentivized to pitch deeper (6-7 innings), extending the K window. Market prices the under at -159, which overvalues the floor given a 4.3-K recent average. Risk: short outing (like his 4.0 IP stints at TEX and vs ATH) would squeeze accumulation.
Erick Fedde under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7200
Read original reasoning
Fedde has posted 3K, 4K, 3K in his last three starts — all under the 3.5 line (two well under). His 2026 K total is 60 in 89 IP (6.07 K/9), well below league average. Advanced intel flags a 1.7 K/BB ratio at the 8th percentile and a FIP of 5.32 vs ERA of 4.15, signaling his ERA is defense-inflated and his underlying strikeout skill is weak. TEX batters with BvP data vs Fedde: Pederson 0-for-7 in at-bats (8 PA, 0.000 OPS), Jung 0-for-4 (0.000 OPS), Langford 0-for-5 in AB (0.167 OPS) — suggesting he gets weak contact but not Ks. 20 days rest may not translate to elevated K output given his profile. Under 3.5 is the play.
