Ernie Clement under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3000
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Clement's L28d OPS is 0.000 and L7d OPS is 0.184 — an extreme cold streak that sharply contradicts his .264 season BA. The market gives only 43.5% implied probability to the under at +130, suggesting the book is anchoring to his season average rather than his recent form. The value lies in fading the season-average anchor when recent performance is this suppressed. Under 7.5 total context limits his run-scoring environment as well.
Ernie Clement under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1800
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Clement is 0-for-4 career vs deGrom (.000 AVG, .000 OPS, all in 2025). Small sample acknowledged, but a zero-contact line against an 11.32 K/9 pitcher is a meaningful signal. Clement's season .265 BA offers little comfort against a pitcher who misses bats at this rate. Under at +118 represents genuine value — market prices this at only 45.9% when BvP and deGrom's elite strikeout rate together push the true probability meaningfully higher.
Ernie Clement under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.6800
Read original reasoning
Career vs Bibee: 0-for-3 (.000 AVG, 0.000 OPS) — small sample noted, but the directional signal is negative. More importantly, Clement is in severe cold-streak territory: L28d OPS of 0.497 and L7d OPS of 0.243, among the worst in this Toronto lineup. His .275 season average doesn't reflect current form. Bibee's 3.88 ERA and strikeout profile further suppress contact expectations. Under 0.5 hits at +168 offers value given the convergence of cold form and poor BvP history.
