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Bats R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-27 — 2026-09-27 · 141 recorded dates. Higher xwOBA means stronger expected production.
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No saved upcoming picks for Ezequiel Tovar.
Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 20 past picks from 47 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6000
Career vs Merrill Kelly: 18 PA, .444 AVG, 1.388 OPS, 2 HR — owns this matchup across every season. 2023: 8 PA, 1.250 OPS. 2024: 8 PA, 1.500 OPS. 2026: 2 PA, 1.500 OPS (small sample but consistent trajectory). Needs just 1 hit against a pitcher he historically destroys. Coors Field runs factor 1.25 amplifies contact. Best BvP edge on the board tonight.
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0600
Tovar hitting .215/.262/.338 on the season with a .624 OPS vs RHP — among the weakest marks on the COL roster. Bryan Woo is a strong RHP generating ~9 K/9. No career matchup data exists between Tovar and Woo, adding uncertainty, but Tovar's overall contact metrics are poor enough to warrant an under lean. +106 is near-even money; treat as a lean rather than a strong conviction play.
Sep 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3000
Career vs King: 13 PA, .167 AVG, 0.417 OPS, 0 HR — the largest sample of any COL batter vs King. In 2026 specifically: 2 PA, 0.000 OPS. Season OPS vs RHP is only .624 — one of the weakest marks on the COL roster. King has shown repeatedly he can neutralize Tovar. Under 0.5 hits at +130 is genuine value given a 13 PA career showing of .167 against today's starter.
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Which pitches he handles and how he makes decisions at the plate.
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team.
| Season / team | G | PA | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Colorado Rockies | 146 | 506 | 102 | 13 | 44 | .219 | .264 | .353 | .617 |
| 2025 · Colorado Rockies | 95 | 390 | 91 | 9 | 33 | .253 | .294 | .400 | .694 |
| 2024 · Colorado Rockies | 157 | 695 | 176 | 26 | 78 | .269 | .295 | .469 | .764 |
| 2023 · Colorado Rockies | 153 | 615 | 147 | 15 | 73 | .253 | .287 | .408 | .695 |
| 2022 · Colorado Rockies | 9 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | .212 | .257 | .333 | .590 |
| Career | 560 | 2241 | 523 | 64 | 230 | .250 | .285 | .412 | .697 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 3 | 0.327 | 0.333 | 88.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-26 | 4 | 0.717 | 0.500 | 97.7 | 0.250 |
| 2026-09-25 | 3 | 0.042 | 0.333 | 77.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-24 | 5 | 0.065 | 0.000 | 73.4 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-23 | 4 | 0.486 | 0.500 | 70.7 | 0.250 |
| 2026-09-20 | 2 | 0.027 | 0.000 | 72.5 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-19 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | — | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-18 | 4 | 0.353 | 0.500 | 99.8 | 0.333 |
| 2026-09-16 | 4 | 0.301 | 0.250 | 88.3 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | 0.383 | 0.333 | 96.1 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 506 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 346 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 346 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 346 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 506 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 506 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
