Framber Valdez under 5.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6200
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Valdez 2026 season K/9 is 6.90 (129 K in 168.2 IP), which straddles the 5.5 line over a standard 6-7 IP start. However, his last 3 starts averaged only 4.3 Ks: 3 K (7 IP vs CLE), 2 K (6 IP vs COL), 8 K (5 IP vs CHW with 4 BB). Two of three recent starts were well under 5.5. WSH carries a league-average offense (.247 AVG, .745 OPS) — not a high-K lineup — and Comerica Park suppresses offense (runs factor 0.97). With the Tigers eliminated and a potential early hook, the recent K-rate trend favors under.
Framber Valdez under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2200
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Valdez has posted just 2, 3, and 5 Ks in his last three starts — two of three went under 3.5. His 2026 K/9 is 6.67 (121 K in 163.2 IP), but recent outings show a clear downward trend in swing-and-miss. His lone 2026 appearance vs CHW yielded only 4 Ks in 6.2 IP. The +122 price on under represents strong market value given the three-start suppression trend.
Framber Valdez under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9000
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Valdez's last 3 starts: 3 K (Sep 05, 7.0 IP), 5 K (Aug 30, 6.0 IP), 0 K (Aug 24, 6.0 IP) — average 2.67 K per start. Only 1 of those 3 cleared the 4.5 line. Season K/9 sits at 6.81 but the trend is clearly downward. 3 mph wind in Detroit keeps the ball in the yard and limits whiff environments. COL is struggling offensively (L4, just swept by Yankees), but Valdez's own punch-out ability has cratered in recent weeks. Under 4.5 is the play at -111.
