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Bats R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-26 — 2026-09-26 · 108 recorded dates. Higher xwOBA means stronger expected production.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 15 past picks from 15 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0000
Alvarez is in a severe cold stretch: L7d OPS 0.269, L28d OPS 0.474 — far below his .226 season average. The market prices this as a coin flip (+100, 50.0% implied), which significantly underweights his recent form collapse. PHI's starter is TBD but likely RHP; Alvarez's vR OPS is 0.734 on the season but his recent production has completely evaporated. Under has clear statistical value here.
Sep 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7800
Career vs Nola: 9 PA, .500 AVG, 2.181 OPS, 3 HR — the most dominant batter-vs-pitcher matchup on the NYM side. 2026 subsample: 5 PA, 3.050 OPS. Alvarez has made consistent hard contact off Nola across multiple seasons (2024: 2.500 OPS, 2025: 0.000 OPS, 2026: 3.050 OPS — note the 2025 cold stretch is the outlier). Confidence held at LOW due to Alvarez's brutal recent slump: L28d 0.498 OPS, L7d 0.321 OPS. The BvP is the primary signal here but recency risk is real.
Sep 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9300
Alvarez career vs Shane Baz (2025): 3 PA, .000 AVG, 0.000 OPS, 0 HR — went hitless in all three trips. His 2026 season line is .231/.314/.398 (0.754 OPS vs RHP), and his last 7 days OPS sits at just 0.481, indicating a cold stretch. L28d OPS is 0.494 — among the worst on the roster. Baz has held him without a hit in their only shared sample. Under 0.5 at -108 is fair value on a hitter trending cold against a pitcher who has owned him.
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Which pitches he handles and how he makes decisions at the plate.
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team.
| Season / team | G | PA | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · New York Mets | 113 | 420 | 87 | 16 | 43 | .233 | .311 | .399 | .710 |
| 2025 · New York Mets | 76 | 277 | 63 | 11 | 32 | .256 | .339 | .447 | .786 |
| 2024 · New York Mets | 100 | 342 | 73 | 11 | 47 | .237 | .307 | .403 | .710 |
| 2023 · New York Mets | 123 | 423 | 80 | 25 | 63 | .209 | .284 | .437 | .721 |
| 2022 · New York Mets | 5 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .500 | .786 |
| Career | 417 | 1476 | 305 | 64 | 186 | .231 | .307 | .421 | .728 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 4 | 0.236 | 0.000 | 93.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-25 | 4 | 0.170 | 0.000 | 98.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-23 | 4 | 0.407 | 0.500 | 105.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-22 | 5 | 0.689 | 0.400 | 100.0 | 0.500 |
| 2026-09-20 | 4 | 0.135 | 0.500 | 94.4 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-19 | 4 | 0.344 | 0.500 | 98.3 | 0.333 |
| 2026-09-17 | 3 | 0.196 | 0.000 | 64.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-15 | 5 | 0.187 | 0.000 | 90.4 | 0.333 |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | 0.134 | 0.250 | 84.6 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-13 | 3 | 0.352 | 0.333 | 93.2 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 420 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 246 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 246 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 246 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 420 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 420 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
