Freddie Freeman

Freeman is 0-for-5 (.000 AVG, .200 OPS) vs Henderson in 2026 — entirely hitless across all documented matchups. Henderson carries a 2.44 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 2026 with a 9.93 K/9. In his two 2026 starts vs LAD he went 7 IP/0 ER and 5 IP/0 ER. Under total (7.5) and committee MIL alignment reinforces a suppressed environment. Market at +128 implies only 43.9% chance of an under — Freeman's 0-for-5 BvP is significantly underpriced at that number.

Freeman is 0-for-6 lifetime vs Misiorowski (2025: 0 OPS in 3 PA, 2026: 0 OPS in 3 PA) despite a .288 season average. Misiorowski's 1.86 ERA and 0.80 first-inning WHIP reflect dominant pitch command. The sample is two seasons deep, both 0-for-3, making this a repeatable suppression pattern rather than noise. At +106 odds (48.5% implied), the market is essentially 50/50 on a batter who has never reached base vs this pitcher. This is plus-money value with legitimate BvP backing.

Freeman is 9-for-22 (.421 AVG) with a 1.132 OPS and 1 HR in 22 career PA vs Mahle — the strongest BvP advantage in this game. His 2026 sample vs Mahle (3 PA, 1.334 OPS) reinforces the trend. Mahle's 2026 ERA of 3.87 and WHIP of 1.23 leave contact lanes open for elite hitters. Freeman bats cleanup for a Dodgers team favored at -141 ML, generating RBI situations. Extra-base contact history vs this pitcher is real: his 2022 sample (7 PA, 1.547 OPS) includes the bulk of that power production. At +126, the market undervalues his BvP edge.