Freddy Peralta over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7500
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Peralta's 2026 K/9 of 8.25 makes a 3.5 K line a low bar. Last 3 starts: 6, 4, 3 Ks — two of three cleared 3.5. With 18 days of extended rest entering ALCS Game 2, expect sharper command and a deeper outing than his late-season shortened starts. CLE team OPS is .696 (below-average contact). Career vs CLE: 4K (5.1 IP, 2025) and 3K (6.0 IP, 2024) — exactly borderline, but the rest advantage and low line tip the scale to the over.
Freddy Peralta under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6400
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Peralta's last 3 starts produced 4K (5.1 IP), 6K (5.2 IP), and 4K (5.0 IP) — a 4.67 average, well under 5.5. His 2026 K/9 dropped to 8.31, down sharply from his 10.4 peak in 2025. In his lone 2026 start vs NYY (May 17), he managed just 4K in 5.0 IP. The outs line at 14.5 (roughly 4.8 IP) implies limited length from the market. Postseason context and a 10-day rest may provide a brief bump in stuff, but the trend and matchup point clearly to Under. Market pricing of -156 reflects the lean, but the last-three-starts data makes the under the correct side.
Freddy Peralta under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 25, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
Read original reasoning
Peralta's 2026 K/9 is 8.38 but his last 3 starts produced only 6, 4, and 2 Ks — a 4.0 K average. His lone 2026 outing vs PHI lasted just 2.2 IP with 10 ER allowed. PHI's playoff urgency (clinch scenario) elevates lineup intensity against a struggling 4.56 ERA arm. Market prices this under at 60.2% probability. Two of his last three starts landed under the 4.5 line, and Citizens Bank Park's 1.05 run factor pushes pitch counts higher early.
