Gabriel Arias

Career vs Bailey Ober: 11 PA, .455 AVG, 1.364 OPS, 1 HR — the strongest BvP on the CLE side. 2025 (9 PA): 1.111 OPS. 2026 (2 PA): 2.500 OPS — continuing the pattern of punishing this pitcher. His season OPS vR is 0.837. At -139, the market has him at 58.1% to reach base and produce a total base — his career .455 average vs Ober suggests the true probability is materially higher. Consistent elite contact against this specific arm.

Arias 2026: .071/.071/.071 in 14 PA — worst OPS among any regular in the dataset. No career BvP data vs Ohtani, and facing an elite pitcher with 12.07 K/9 and 3.34 ERA in 2025. Arias' near-zero OPS in 14 PA demonstrates severe contact issues to start 2026. Under 0.5 hits at -159 (61.4% implied) aligns with the committee's under 8.0 total and the suppressive matchup. Dodger Stadium runs factor 0.96 further dampens offense.