Gavin Williams

Williams' 2026: 260 K in 190.1 IP (12.29 K/9, AL-best). Game 2 of this ALDS: 11 K in 5.0 IP against this same CHW lineup. At 12.29 K/9, a 6-inning outing projects to ~8 K and even 5 innings projects to ~6.8 K — right at the threshold. Manager Stephen Vogt committed: 'Gavin wants the ball.' Line of 6.5 is beatable even in a truncated start. Key risk: Williams made his first-ever MLB relief appearance in Game 4 (18 pitches), an unprecedented mechanical variable that caps confidence to MEDIUM. His Game 2 comp (11 K in 5 IP) is the primary recent reference point and strongly supports over.

Williams posts 12.11 K/9 in 2026 (248 K in 184.1 IP) with 11 double-digit K games this season. In three regular season starts vs CHW 2026 he logged 7, 7, and 6 Ks — averaging 6.7 but his overall rate projects ~8 Ks in a full outing. With 10 days rest and a must-win Game 2 context for CLE, he figures to be extended. CHW batted .236 this season and was shut out with 3 hits in Game 1, showing vulnerability vs elite arms. Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 further limits early exits via long ball. Market is nearly even (Under -132 / Over -116), indicating marginal lean toward Under, but his K/9 ceiling and postseason leverage give the Over a data-backed edge.

Williams is posting 244 K in 181.0 IP in 2026 — 12.13 K/9, elite by any measure. Last 3 starts: 9K, 7K, 11K, averaging 9.0 Ks per outing. KC's lineup is riddled with weak BvP numbers against him: Pasquantino is 16 PA, .067 AVG, 0.392 OPS career with a 0.000 OPS in 2026 (6 PA); Caglianone is 9 PA, .111 AVG, 0.222 OPS with a 0.000 OPS in 2026 (5 PA); Witt Jr. is 28 PA, .185 AVG, 0.510 OPS career. KC is 2-8 in L10, a struggling offense with no momentum. Line of 6.5 is well below his recent floor.