Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8100
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Williams posted 12.49 K/9 in 2026 (272 K in 196.0 IP). Last two full starts: 12 K (Oct 10 vs CHW) and 11 K (Oct 5 vs CHW). ALDS vs White Sox: 24 K in 11.2/3 IP — a 18.5 K/9 clip carrying into ALCS. Line of 6.5 is well below his season floor. TB offense sits at .258 AVG with no demonstrated adjustment to Williams from ALDS tape. 20 days rest means full arsenal available. CLE favored by committee; Williams on the mound is the primary reason.
Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 10, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7300
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Williams' 2026: 260 K in 190.1 IP (12.29 K/9, AL-best). Game 2 of this ALDS: 11 K in 5.0 IP against this same CHW lineup. At 12.29 K/9, a 6-inning outing projects to ~8 K and even 5 innings projects to ~6.8 K — right at the threshold. Manager Stephen Vogt committed: 'Gavin wants the ball.' Line of 6.5 is beatable even in a truncated start. Key risk: Williams made his first-ever MLB relief appearance in Game 4 (18 pitches), an unprecedented mechanical variable that caps confidence to MEDIUM. His Game 2 comp (11 K in 5 IP) is the primary recent reference point and strongly supports over.
Gavin Williams over 7.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8600
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Williams posts 12.11 K/9 in 2026 (248 K in 184.1 IP) with 11 double-digit K games this season. In three regular season starts vs CHW 2026 he logged 7, 7, and 6 Ks — averaging 6.7 but his overall rate projects ~8 Ks in a full outing. With 10 days rest and a must-win Game 2 context for CLE, he figures to be extended. CHW batted .236 this season and was shut out with 3 hits in Game 1, showing vulnerability vs elite arms. Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 further limits early exits via long ball. Market is nearly even (Under -132 / Over -116), indicating marginal lean toward Under, but his K/9 ceiling and postseason leverage give the Over a data-backed edge.
