Gerrit Cole over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6200
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Cole's 2026 K/9 is 9.3 (131 K in 127 IP). A line of 4.5 is extremely low — he needs just 5 Ks to cover. In 2026 vs TB specifically: 8 Ks (Sep 23), 6 Ks (Jul 08). Across last 6 starts vs Rays: 4-1 record, 2.09 ERA. Aaron Judge (out on 10-Day IL) removes the Yankees' best run-support bat, reducing blowout risk and keeping Cole pitching into later innings. On 10 days extended rest with 23 career postseason starts, Cole arrives locked in. Outs market (16.5 line) projects ~5.5 IP — at 9.3 K/9 over 5.5 IP that's 5.7 projected Ks, comfortably over 4.5.
Gerrit Cole over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5900
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Cole's 2026 K/9 is 9.13 (123 K in 121.1 IP), making 4.5 a conservatively low threshold on paper — his season rate projects roughly 5.1 Ks over a standard 5-6 inning outing. Prior TB matchup this year went 6 K in 6.1 IP (Jul 8). TB's team pitching generates 8.25 K/9, suggesting a lineup with moderate-to-decent strikeout tendencies on offense. The caveat is recent form: last 3 starts produced 6, 4, and 3 Ks — he cleared 4.5 in only one of three. That recent cold stretch (avg 4.3 over last 3) keeps conviction at MEDIUM rather than HIGH, but the season rate and low line maintain the over lean.
Gerrit Cole under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0000
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Cole's last 3 starts: 4K (4.1 IP), 3K (7.0 IP), 5K (5.1 IP) — averaging 4.0 K per outing. Outs line of 15.5 implies roughly 5 innings of work, capping upside. ARI lineup features Arenado (.455 AVG, 1.410 OPS career vs Cole in 22 PA) and a contact-oriented lineup that has made Cole work hard — 7 HR surrendered in his last 11.1 IP signals elevated fly-ball rate, not swing-and-miss dominance. Under 4.5 at +100 offers fair value against a pitcher clearly trending away from his K-generating form.
