Grant Holmes

Holmes K/9 of 7.21 (110 K in 137.2 IP) on 6 days extended rest — projects to a deeper outing. Last three starts vs PHI: 6 K (Sep 07), 4 K (Apr 24), 4 K (Apr 19). In meaningful outings against this Phillies lineup he has not gone under 4 Ks. Extended rest typically buys an extra inning. Over 3.5 at -132 is well-supported by the BvP history alone.

Holmes has posted just 1, 3, and 3 Ks in his last three outings — a 2.3 K average over that stretch, well below his season K/9 of 7.1 (104 K in 131.2 IP). His recent contact-suppression issues are compounding: he walked 55 batters in 131.2 IP (3.76 BB/9), suggesting he is working around hitters rather than through them. Against PHI specifically: 4 K (Apr 24), 4 K (Apr 19), 6 K (Apr 9 2025) — and those outings were longer than his current recent stretch (3 IP on Sep 2). The market prices this under at -132, acknowledging the direction, but the last-3-start pattern strongly supports the under.

Holmes's season K/9 of 7.28 (100 K in 123.2 IP) looks fine on paper, but his last three starts tell a different story: 3 Ks in 6 IP vs CHW, 3 Ks in 3.2 IP vs ARI, 2 Ks in 6 IP vs NYY — averaging 2.67 Ks per outing. That sustained suppression of strikeout output is the signal. Even in his 8 days of extended rest, he's trending away from punchouts, not toward them. COL is a weak lineup (.740 OPS team) but Holmes isn't missing bats right now. Under 4.5 at -112 reflects near coin-flip odds on a pitcher whose recent form points decisively lower.