Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9000
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Rodriguez has recorded exactly 4, 4, and 3 Ks in his last three starts — never reaching 5. His 2026 ERA of 5.96 in 93.2 IP reflects command deterioration, not dominance. The 4.5 line requires him to match or exceed his best recent outing. His 2026 vs SEA data is from 2024 (8K, 7K) when he was a different pitcher. Current form is firmly sub-5 K, making the under at -111 a high-confidence play.
Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8200
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Rodriguez's last three starts: 4K in 4.0 IP (BOS), 4K in 5.1 IP (WSH), 7K in 6.0 IP (NYY). The 7K outing against NYY is the outlier; the prior two he was chased early. His lone start vs MIN in 2026 (Jul 10) produced 0 Ks across 5.1 IP. ERA at 6.10 over 87 IP reflects a pattern of early baserunners and short exits. With MIN projected to score 4.0 runs and Rodriguez's recent short outings (twice under 5.2 IP), he needs a deep, clean start to clear 5 Ks. Under 4.5 at -122 carries the statistical lean.
Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7100
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Rodriguez's last 3 starts: 3 K (4.0 IP), 7 K (6.0 IP), 4 K (5.2 IP) — two of three under 4.5. His most recent outing lasted just 4 IP, and he has a 4.09 BB/9 in 2026, burning pitches through walks before accumulating Ks. ERA of 6.28 suggests hitters are making contact rather than whiffing. Short outing risk is real: if he gets chased early again, the K ceiling is capped well below 4.5. Two of his last three starts came in under this number.
