Griffin Canning under 4.5 strikeoutsV
Jul 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6100
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Canning's last three starts: 4 K in 3.2 IP (Jul 18), 5 K in 4.2 IP (Jul 9), 4 K in 4.0 IP (Jul 4) — average of 4.33 Ks per outing. At 4.0-4.2 IP average and 8.97 K/9, he projects to ~4.2 Ks per start. His last appearance vs ATL (Jun 23 2026) was catastrophic: 0.2 IP, 4 ER, only 2 Ks — suggesting ATL's lineup creates pitch accumulation and early exits. With a 6.67 ERA and 1-8 record in 2026 and a bullpen on alert, Canning is unlikely to extend deep enough to reach 5 Ks. Under 4.5 aligns with his outing length pattern.
Market unavailableV
Jul 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7500
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Canning's last 3 starts: 3 K in 4.1 IP, 2 K in 0.2 IP, 2 K in 4.1 IP — averaging 2.3 Ks over that stretch. His 2026 ERA sits at 7.09 across only 47.0 IP, and he's consistently pulled before getting deep enough to accumulate strikeouts. He's faced LAD this year (May 19: 5 K in 5.0 IP) but that was his best recent outing. Facing the best offense on the slate without Ohtani still means Tucker, Freeman, Muncy, and Betts. The trend of short, ineffective outings is the dominant signal here. Under 4.5 is the strong play.
Market unavailableL
Jun 12, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8100
Read original reasoning
Canning is 0-4 with a 6.34 ERA in 32.2 IP this season — his team is 2-5-0 ATS in his starts, reflecting poor performance leading to short outings. Last 3 starts: 6, 3, 5 Ks (avg 4.67), with exit after 5.0 IP in two of three. BAL scores 4.7 R/G and is 26-23 vs RHP. Early exit risk caps his K total. Even his true-talent estimate of 4.52 ERA implies a rough night against a better-than-record Baltimore lineup. Under at -123 is reasonable value with early hook risk built in.
