Griffin Conine to hit a home runL
Aug 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 4.3990
Read original reasoning
Conine slashes .267/.361/.540 with 14 HR and a 1.006 OPS vs RHP — elite right-handed power split. Irvin has allowed 12 HR in 71.1 IP in 2026 (1.52 HR/9, well above league average). loanDepot park HR factor is 0.88 (mild suppressor), but Irvin's fly-ball vulnerability partially offsets that. +340 odds (22.7% implied) offer fair value for a pull-side power hitter with this platoon advantage. Aligns with Marlins -1.5 run line — if MIA wins by 2+, run production is expected.
Griffin Conine to hit a home runL
Aug 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 5.4000
Read original reasoning
Conine posts a 1.002 OPS vs RHP with 14 HR in just 198 PA — an elite home run rate against right-handed pitching (Brad Lord starts right-handed). His L28d OPS is 0.941, keeping the hot-bat angle intact. Lord has allowed 7 HR across 62.1 IP in 2026 (1.01 HR/9), above league average. loanDepot Park HR factor is 0.88 — slightly suppressive — which holds the confidence at LOW, but +440 is fair value given Conine's demonstrated power vs righties.
Griffin Conine to hit a home runL
Aug 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 4.2990
Read original reasoning
Conine has posted .690 SLG, .345 ISO, 21.1% barrel rate, and 58% hard-hit rate over his last 10 games — one of the hottest power bats in the MIA lineup. Nola allows 30 HR in 130.0 IP in 2026 (2.08 HR/9), well above league average. Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.1. Career vs Nola: 5 PA, .400 AVG (2026: 2 PA, 1.000 OPS, small sample). +330 (implied 23.3%) is reasonable value for a batter running this hot against a fly-ball-prone starter in a hitter's park.
