Henry Davis

Davis is 0-for-7 (.000 AVG, 0.000 OPS) in 7 career PA vs Sonny Gray across 2024 and 2025. His season batting average is only .171 with a .571 OPS. Gray's elite 2026 form suppresses weak contact hitters and Davis shows no ability to square him up across a meaningful career sample. Market prices this near a coin flip at -105 — the BvP career data gives a clear statistical edge to the under.

Henry Davis is hitting just .176 AVG (240 PA) with a .272 OBP in 2026 — the weakest contact rate of any regular in this lineup. Facing Junk who runs 6.85 K/9 and has a .636 OPS-against mark from Davis vs RHP (vR 0.636). The market is dead-even at +100 under / -141 over, implying a 50% hit probability — that's inflated for a .176 hitter. Under 0.5 hits at even money is clear positive expected value here.

Davis is batting .167 on the season with a vL OPS of just 0.435 — one of the most severe platoon disadvantages in the data. He faces Ryan Weathers (LHP, confirmed starter), which puts Davis in his absolute worst matchup type. The market prices this at -111 (52.6% implied), essentially a coin flip — a significant undervaluation of the platoon split. A catcher batting .167 overall dropping further against a left-hander he's ill-equipped to handle is a strong under signal. Lean on the split.