Hunter Dobbins

Dobbins posting 8.1 K/9 in 2026 (36 K / 40.0 IP). Last 3 starts: 5K, 4K, 4K — all cleared the 3.5 line. PHI lineup is contact-capable (.238 AVG) but Dobbins has been consistent in generating punch-outs. Extended rest (6 days) should keep his stuff sharp. +106 is live value on a pitcher who has gone over in 3 straight.

Dobbins' last 3 starts: 4 K (5.1 IP), 5 K (6.0 IP), 4 K (5.0 IP) — averaging 4.3 Ks per outing, all under the 4.5 line. His 2026 K/9 is 8.55 (32 K / 33.2 IP) but recent outings show contact-management over swing-and-miss dominance. NYY lineup posts .724 OPS and 162 HR, generating hard contact rather than easy Ks. The 13-day extended rest is a wildcard — rust or labored mechanics are real concerns for a pitcher with volatile outing lengths. Career vs NYY: two starts, 5 K and 0 K. Last 3 starts are the cleanest signal here, all pointing under.

Dobbins' 2025 full-season K/9 was 6.64 over 61 IP — his career baseline is not a high-strikeout profile. His 2026 K/9 looks elevated at 9.27 but is based on only 22.1 IP (tiny sample). Last 3 starts: 4K, 5K, 6K — only his most recent start (Jul 7, 4 Ks) went under 4.5. He's returning from 15 days of extended rest, which can affect command and early-inning sharpness. The outs market (14.5 line near even) signals market uncertainty about his depth. LAA offense (.240 AVG, .704 OPS) isn't a high-K lineup by any means, but Dobbins will need to sustain 2026's small-sample pace to clear 5 Ks. Lean under given career baseline and rust risk.