Isaac Paredes

Paredes posts .449 SLG with 25 HR and a strong 0.809 vR OPS in 655 PA. L7d OPS of 1.132 signals he is in excellent current form. Facing Seth Johnson (6.19 ERA, 1.69 WHIP), who has allowed hard contact and walks throughout 2026, at essentially even odds (-102) is a legitimate edge. As a middle-of-the-order bat for the projected winning team, total bases over 1.5 is a natural fit.

Paredes is 8-for-19 (.421 AVG, 0.842 OPS) in 19 career PA vs Kirby. More importantly, his 2026 sample is 9 PA at 1.334 OPS — he's actively feasting on Kirby this season. Paredes holds a .262/.360/.440 season line with solid contact rates. His recent L7d OPS is 1.090, meaning he's hot entering this game. The career and current-year BvP both point strongly to a hit.

Paredes is 0-for-3 vs Rasmussen with 0.000 OPS in 2026 — the only year of career matchup data available. This is a small sample (3 PA) and LOW confidence reflects that. However, Under at +114 is plus-money, which means the market is not pricing Paredes as a heavy under candidate despite the 0-for-3 record. Rasmussen's 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (team), and sharp command (27 BB in 153.1 IP) support suppressing contact. Paredes is also in a cold stretch (.000 OPS vs Rasmussen in 2026). Caveat: 3 PA does not establish a definitive pattern.