Iván Herrera

Herrera bats second in the STL order (per confirmed lineup: Fermín, Herrera, Walker...), giving him high-leverage at-bats. He carries a .382 SLG and 16 HR in 661 PA. L7d OPS of 0.841 shows genuine recent heat. Career vs Newcomb: 2 PA, .000 AVG — tiny sample, no meaningful signal. What matters is Newcomb's overall collapse: 0 K in his last start, 1.1 IP max in 3 outings, walking batters, allowing hard contact. At +124 (44.6% implied), the market prices the over below what a mid-lineup DH hitting .841 over the last week should command against a deteriorating LHP. Risk: Newcomb on 20 days rest — could come out sharp early before fading.

Herrera is 2-for-4 career vs Gordon (.500 AVG, 1.250 OPS), with his lone 2026 plate appearance resulting in a 2.000 OPS — though that is a 1-PA sample and should be weighted cautiously. The stronger signal is his recent form: 2-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBIs in his most recent game, with a 1.007 OPS over the last 7 days. Gordon carries a 1.52 WHIP and 5.18 ERA in 2026, surrendering 1.73 HR/9 — he gives up hits at a high rate. Coors Field (runs factor 1.25) amplifies contact output league-wide. At +118, this is a value-priced over for a hot hitter against a hittable righty.

Herrera's 2026 slate vs Feltner (3 PA, 1.666 OPS, 1 HR) is a small sample but points hot. STL is favored and the blended score projection has them scoring ~5.8 runs. With Coors' run-inflation (runs factor 1.25) and Feltner's 5.84 ERA in 2026, Cardinals lineup traffic will be real. Herrera bats in the middle of the order and posted 14 HR in 2026. At +124 (44.6% implied), this is positive-money on a legitimate RBI threat against a vulnerable starter in the game's highest-run-scoring environment. Risk: Herrera's season OPS (.733) is inconsistent and he's hitless in 3 of his last 7 days per L7d data.