Jack Flaherty over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9400
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Flaherty is on pace for 10.7 K/9 in 2026 (98 K in 82.1 IP). Last 3 starts: 9 K, 5 K, 6 K — two of three cleared 5.5. CHC lineup presents favorable matchup: Seiya Suzuki is 0-for-8 with 0.111 OPS career vs Flaherty (0.000 OPS in 2025), Ian Happ is hitting .091 AVG across 16 PA, Michael Busch 0-for-2 in 2025. Flaherty also gets 10 days of extended rest. Over 5.5 at -106 is fair value for a legitimate strikeout arm against a Cubs lineup with notable Ks-prone hitters.
Jack Flaherty over 5.5 strikeoutsW
Jul 10, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7750
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Flaherty is running a 10.86 K/9 in 2026 (92 K in 76.1 IP). Last two quality starts: 9 K vs HOU (Jun 28) and 5 K vs TEX (Jul 4) — both cleared 5.5. PHI team OPS is .706 (below-average offense) and the park is pitcher-friendly (runs factor 0.97). Six days extended rest should mean full arsenal and pitch efficiency. The 1 K vs CLE in 3 IP (Jun 12) was an outlier short outing; his standard start profile supports 6+ Ks.
Market unavailableW
Jun 28, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0800
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Flaherty's 2026 K/9 sits at 10.7 (78 K in 65.2 IP) — the strikeout arsenal remains intact despite ERA struggles. Last 3 starts: 7K (5 IP vs SEA Jun 07), 6K (5 IP vs TB Jun 02) — two of three exceeded 5.5. Only exception was the disastrous Jun 12 CLE start (3 IP, 1K). vs HOU specifically: 9K (7 IP Aug 2025), 4K (5 IP Apr 2025), 6K (5 IP Jun 2024) — two of three over 5.5. With 16 days rest (longest break of his 2026 season), fuller outings are likely. Market prices Under at -154 but Over at +108 offers significant value given K/9 and HOU matchup history.
