Jackson Holliday under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
Read original reasoning
Holliday is in a prolonged cold stretch: L7d OPS 0.333 and L28d OPS 0.433. His season vR OPS is 0.636 — below average against RHP like Tong. Full season line: .225/.298/.338. No career BvP data available against Tong. +120 (45.5% implied) offers market value given his weak RHP splits and sustained poor recent form. Under total environment further limits run-creation opportunities, reducing chances of multi-hit contribution needed to create contact volume.
Jackson Holliday under 0.5 hitsL
Aug 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3200
Read original reasoning
Holliday is 0-for-4 vs Matz with a 0.250 OPS (sole contribution is one walk, zero hits — small sample but directionally clear). He is a LHB facing LHP Matz, carrying a platoon split of just .691 OPS vs LHP this season vs .732 vs RHP. Season line stands at .241/.343/.379. Under 0.5 hits at +132 offers positive expected value given the 0-for-4 career record and confirmed platoon disadvantage.
Jackson Holliday under 0.5 hitsW
Aug 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.5400
Read original reasoning
Holliday is 1-for-6 (.167 AVG, 0.334 OPS) in 6 career PA vs Ober, all in 2025 — small sample, noted explicitly. Season .251 AVG is league average. The BvP history shows he has not driven the ball against Ober. His L28d OPS of 0.831 reflects some recent form, so this is a lean rather than a strong fade. At +154 (market-implied 39.4%), the price offers slight value if the 2025 matchup struggles carry forward into 2026. Treat as a speculative value play rather than a high-conviction call.
