Jackson Merrill under 0.5 hitsL
Oct 6, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.6400
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Merrill is 0-for-9 against Dustin May in 2026 with a 0.000 OPS. Career across 12 PA: .000 AVG, 0.083 OPS — he has not recorded a single hit against May in any tracked matchup. This is as clean a BvP under signal as exists. The +164 price implies only a 37.9% probability of staying hitless, which dramatically underestimates the career suppression evidence. Petco Park runs factor 0.92 and under 7.5 game context reinforce a pitcher-friendly environment where May's groundball tendencies have historically shut Merrill down completely.
Jackson Merrill under 0.5 hitsL
Sep 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
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Merrill is 0-for-9 lifetime vs Glasnow with 0.000 OPS across 9 career PAs, broken across two seasons: 2024 (7 PA, 0.000 OPS) and 2025 (2 PA, 0.000 OPS). Every single matchup has produced zero production. Glasnow's 2026 K/9 of 11.6 further suppresses contact chances. At +120, this market undervalues one of the most consistent career mismatches in today's slate — hitless across a two-year sample against a high-strikeout ace.
Jackson Merrill over 0.5 hitsW
Sep 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5000
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Merrill is 3-for-5 (.600 AVG, 1.600 OPS) career vs Pérez, including a 2.000 OPS across his 3 PA in 2026 specifically. Currently riding a hot streak (1.119 OPS L7d, including a HR in yesterday's game per news intel). Pérez has been hit hard in recent outings: 3 ER in 5 IP vs LAD, 5 ER in 4 IP vs NYM, 6 ER in 4.2 IP vs KC. BvP trend this season plus Pérez's elevated recent ERA strongly support a hit for Merrill.
