Jacob deGrom over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7000
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deGrom's 2026 K/9 sits at 11.32 (194 K in 154.1 IP). Last 3 starts: 8 K (5 IP), 12 K (6 IP), 7 K (6 IP) — all three cleared 5.5 comfortably. At home in 2026 he's posted a 2.53 ERA with 111 Ks in 85.1 IP (11.71 K/9), making Globe Life Field his personal strikeout factory. TOR carries a team .693 OPS and a thin lineup anchored by Spencer Miles, who offers deGrom minimal run support pressure to limit pitch counts. Market implied probability is only 58.8%, well below what his recent K volume warrants.
Jacob deGrom under 6.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 10, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9700
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deGrom's 2026 K/9 is a robust 10.94 (174 K in 143.1 IP), but his SEA-specific record this year tells a different story: 4K in 5.0 IP (Jul 26), 3K in 4.0 IP (Apr 17), 6K in 5.0 IP (Apr 06) — averaging 4.33 Ks per start vs Seattle. His outings vs this lineup have also been short (4.0–5.0 IP), capping counting volume. The Under at -103 carries value relative to a line set well above his actual SEA production.
Jacob deGrom over 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7900
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deGrom's 2026 K/9 sits at 10.96 (167 K in 137.1 IP). Last 3 starts: 8K in 7.0 IP (0 ER), 2K in 3.2 IP (8 ER — early hook on a blowup, not a stuff issue), 10K in 6.0 IP (0 ER). In full outings, he routinely clears 5.5 Ks. The 2K game was an aberration: 5 BB and early exit, not a velocity or command failure. TB hits .260 with .731 OPS — not an elite contact lineup. Line of 5.5 is low relative to his baseline output; the blowup outing is skewing market perception downward. His 2025 season produced 185 K in 172.2 IP (9.65 K/9), consistent with elite strikeout rates across multiple seasons.
