Jake Bennett over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9800
Read original reasoning
Bennett's 2026 season line: 83 K in 105.0 IP = 7.11 K/9, which projects to approximately 4.7 Ks per start. His prior two quality outings delivered 7 K (vs BAL) and 7 K (vs NYY). The last start (2 K, 6 ER vs LAA) was an outlier with a BABIP-driven blowup — his ERA sits at 3.69 on the season with a good BB/9 (1.63). TEX has no career matchup data vs Bennett, removing a key counter-signal. -102 is near-even juice on a line his season average clears. Extended rest (7 days) may sharpen command.
Jake Bennett over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6900
Read original reasoning
Bennett sits at 7.12 K/9 overall with road splits of 8.3 K/9 across 8 away games. Last 3 starts: 7 K, 6 K, 6 K — all clearing 4.5 with room to spare. BAL lineup posts .235 AVG and .713 OPS as a unit. Only prior start vs Orioles this year: 4 K in 5.2 IP, meaning the 4.5 line is set conservatively. A LHP matchup against a right-heavy BAL order (Henderson, Alonso, Mayo, Basallo) that grades poorly vs lefties amplifies the K upside.
Jake Bennett over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
Read original reasoning
Bennett is averaging 6.8 K/9 (61 K in 80.2 IP) on the season. Last 3 starts: 6 K (Aug 14, 4.0 IP), 5 K (Aug 08, 5.1 IP), 4 K (Aug 02, 5.2 IP) — all at or above the 4.5 line. SF Giants are posting MLB-worst August offense (.212 BA, top-10 K rate vs LHP), and they are particularly weak facing left-handers. Three-of-three recent starts hit the over and the opponent profile is the best Bennett could hope for. Extended rest (9 days) keeps his arm fresh for a full outing.
