Jake Burger

Burger is 1-for-10 (.100 AVG) career vs Bailey Ober with consistent futility: 0.000 OPS in 2022, 0.000 OPS in 2023, 0.000 OPS in 2024. The lone 2025 uptick (1.666 OPS, 3 PA) is a 3-PA blip that doesn't erase a decade of getting dominated. Burger's season vR OPS is 0.662 — below average against right-handers. Under at +112 is solid value given the 10-PA career suppression pattern.

Career vs Manaea: 8 PA, .375 AVG, 1.625 OPS, 2 HR — all in 2024, providing the most recent and directly relevant sample. Manaea is LHP and Burger's vL OPS is 0.920 (vs .666 vR), making this a favorable platoon matchup. Burger is also hitting L7d .859 OPS with 27 HR and strong recent power. With 2 HR in 8 PA vs Manaea specifically, the path to 1.5+ TB via extra-base contact is well-supported. Over 1.5 TB at +120 reflects undervalued BvP edge.

Burger has slugged 26 HR this season with a .232/.303/.424 slash. His platoon split vs LHP is massive: 0.894 OPS vs left-handers compared to 0.666 vs right-handers. Jake Bennett is a LHP. +360 represents implied 21.7% probability for a 26-HR power hitter in a favorable platoon spot. Globe Life Field HR factor is 0.92 — modest suppression — but does not override the platoon edge. No career BvP data to cut against.