Jake Cronenworth

Cronenworth's career vs Gausman is one of the starkest mismatches on this board: 19 PA, .105 AVG, 0.210 OPS, 0 HR. The bulk of that sample (14 PA in 2021) produced a .142 OPS. 2025 (2 PA): 0.000 OPS. Only the 2026 sample (3 PA, 0.666 OPS) shows any life, but that is a small-sample outlier within a dominant career suppression pattern. Season BA of .225 and vR OPS of .630 confirm his contact struggles vs right-handed pitching broadly. Under 0.5 hits at -109 is an efficient price given the historical evidence.

Cronenworth is having a down year: .219 BA overall with a vR OPS of just 0.600 — weak against right-handed pitching (Phillips is RHP). His L28d OPS of 0.571 shows the slump has been prolonged, not a blip. Career vs Phillips: 1 PA, 0 hits (tiny sample). Phillips's 7.26 K/9 is not elite, but against a soft-contact, low-average hitter like Cronenworth, contact quality matters more. Under at +106 offers value when market prices only 48.5% probability against a hitter batting .219 with a .600 OPS vs RHP.

Cronenworth is 0-for-4 (0.000 OPS) against Sugano in 2026. His season numbers are poor at .209 AVG / .578 OPS vs RHP, and his L7d OPS is .358 — the worst on the Padres roster. Sugano's split vs lefties historically trends toward stronger contact suppression, and Cronenworth bats left-handed. The combination of BvP shutout, season-long slump, and week-long cold streak makes the under at +162 a clear value bet.