Jake Irvin over 4.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8000
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Irvin's K/9 sits at 8.89 in 2026 across 91.1 IP. Last 3 starts: 3, 5, 6 Ks — two of three cleared 4.5. In his lone prior matchup vs LAA (Jun 27, 2025), he struck out 5 in 4.1 IP despite giving up 8 runs, showing he can generate Ks even in bad outings. LAA is a weak offense (.234 AVG, .680 OPS, 4.0 R/G) that doesn't punish pitchers consistently — their lineup features several below-average contact bats (Heineman .177, Moore .187, Guzman .225). Market at -125 (55.6%) feels underpriced given K/9 and two recent overs.
Jake Irvin under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
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Irvin's last three starts: 6K in 4.1 IP (pulled early), 4K in 6.0 IP, 6K in 6.0 IP. Critically, his July 30 start vs ATL this season produced just 1 K in 5.0 IP — the most recent BvP data point. His 2026 BB/9 of 4.30 (39 BB in 81.2 IP) drives early pitch counts and short outings. He was pulled at 4.1 IP in his last start. If game script goes Braves ahead early (61.3% win probability), Irvin faces pull risk before 5 full innings. Under -152 market pricing reflects strong consensus; this aligns with the outing length and ATL matchup history.
Jake Irvin over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7100
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Career vs Colorado: 31 Ks across 4 starts — 7.75 K/start average. News confirms 1-0, 3.70 ERA, .191 OPP AVG in those starts. His 2026 K rate (76 K in 77.1 IP = 8.85 K/9) is strong. COL has scored just 16 runs in their last 6 games, suggesting passive at-bats and swing-and-miss tendencies vs quality arms. The 4.5 line is dramatically underselling Irvin's BvP ceiling against this specific opponent.
