Jake McCarthy

Career vs Kelly: 9 PA, .111 AVG, 0.222 OPS, 0 HR. 2026 specifically: 6 PA, 0.000 OPS — completely shut down by Kelly this year. Despite a respectable .295 season BA and .784 OPS vs RHP, BvP data is the primary signal here. Under 1.5 requires McCarthy to go 0-for or 1-for against a pitcher who has retired him at an elite clip. L7d OPS of 0.780 is season-wide and irrelevant to this specific matchup.

McCarthy's vL OPS is 0.909 — his best split — and he draws Anderson, a LHP. His season line reads .298/.341/.488 with 15 HR across 568 PA, giving him the SLG to rack up extra bases. No BvP data exists vs Anderson, so the platoon advantage is the primary edge. Coors Field runs factor 1.25 and HR factor 1.20 amplify any hard contact. His L7d OPS is 0.938, showing current form. Over 1.5 TB at -128 reflects the market's respect for his upside, and the LHP matchup tips it toward the over.

McCarthy hits .293/.337/.484 on the season but faces Cam Schlittler, who owns a 2.04 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 11.01 K/9 — AL Cy Young frontrunner. No career BvP data exists between McCarthy and Schlittler, meaning McCarthy brings no historical edge. Schlittler's elite contact suppression profile (0.94 WHIP) projects fewer hits allowed per PA than virtually any starter in baseball. Under 0.5 hits at +152 offers substantial return against an elite strikeout arm. Score model projects COL to 2.9 runs, limiting their offensive opportunities overall.