James Wood to hit a home runL
Sep 25, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 5.2990
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Wood is having a breakout 2026: 30 HR, .505 SLG, .262/.385/.505 slash, .943 OPS vs RHP this season. Main committee has Washington favored on the moneyline — lean toward Nationals' best power bat. Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 (neutral). The NYM starter remains TBD, which is the primary risk and why confidence is LOW. But Wood's power volume and regular lineup exposure give him consistent home run upside at +430, which prices in significant uncertainty.
James Wood to hit a home runL
Sep 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 5.7010
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Wood leads the WSH lineup with 30 HR on the season and a .511 SLG. His OPS vs RHP stands at 0.947, making Drew Anderson a matchable opponent. Anderson has allowed 14 HR in 102.0 IP (1.24 HR/9 — above league average), providing some HR vulnerability. Risk factors: Comerica Park HR factor 0.92 suppresses long balls, and Wood's L7d OPS of 0.465 signals a cold stretch. +470 (17.5% implied) prices in the suppression and cold form appropriately for a longshot anytime HR play.
James Wood over 1.5 total basesL
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
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Wood is WSH's most dangerous bat: .267/.392/.517 slash, 30 HR, .955 OPS vs RHP this season. He is the type of power/OBP hitter who regularly reaches base multiple times and adds extra bases. No BvP data exists vs Mathews (a rookie LHP), which cuts both ways — but Wood hits .825 OPS vs LHP and owns elite exit velocity indicators. The over 9.0 total and STL -1.5 main picks suggest a run-heavy game where WSH bats see live counts. Wood at +114 for 1.5 total bases offers positive expected value for the Nationals' best hitter.
