Jameson Taillon under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6100
Read original reasoning
Taillon is returning from a 43-day hamstring IL stint — his last outing was Jun 7 vs SF (1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB), and before that he allowed 4+ ER in 3 of 5 starts with a 5.19 ERA in 2026. His K rate is 7.85 K/9 in 67.2 IP this season, meaning even in a full healthy outing he'd need ~5 innings to threaten 5. With a near-certain pitch count restriction on an IL return, he is unlikely to go deep enough to accumulate 5 strikeouts. Under 4.5 at -164 reflects market awareness but is still the correct side.
Market unavailableL
Jun 2, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9800
Read original reasoning
Taillon's last 3 starts: 4K (5.0 IP), 5K (4.2 IP), 2K (5.0 IP) — averaging just 3.67 Ks per outing. His 2026 K/9 of 7.6 (51 K in 60.1 IP) is undermined by abbreviated outings; he has not exceeded 5 innings in any of his last 3 starts, limiting accumulation. 5.37 ERA and 8 ER in his most recent start indicate he is getting hit rather than generating punchouts. Under 4.5 at -102 is near even-money with clear recent-form backing.
Market unavailableW
May 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9400
Read original reasoning
Last 3 starts: 5 K, 2 K, 4 K (average 3.67 K). 2026 K/9 of approximately 7.67 down from prior years, with form clearly trending downward. Despite 10 K vs PIT in April, the three subsequent starts show consistent suppression of K totals. Market has under at -106 (51.5% implied) — a narrow edge that aligns with recent start-by-start output.
