Javier Assad under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
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Assad's last 3 starts: 2K, 2K, 0K — under 3.5 in all three. His 2026 K rate is 5.94 K/9 (55 K in 83.1 IP), a contact-oriented profile with no recent swing-and-miss output. The 32-day extended rest is a major flag: long layoffs routinely suppress command and bat-missing sharpness in early-return outings. Marlins don't present an elevated team K rate. Under at -147 is priced in but backed by three consecutive confirming data points.
Javier Assad under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6500
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Assad's 2026 K/9 sits at 6.24 (48 K in 69.2 IP) — already modest. His last three outings: 4.1 IP (6 K), 3.0 IP (3 K), 1.0 IP (2 K). That's a shrinking outing trend that caps his strikeout ceiling. The outs prop market at 14.5 (-169 over) implies ~4.8 IP; at 6.24 K/9 over 4.8 IP projects to ~3.3 Ks — under the line. Facing a Dodgers lineup (.262 AVG, .772 OPS, 5.1 R/G) that makes contact. Market is already -154 under, but the recent durability pattern still justifies this.
Javier Assad under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
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Assad's 2026 K rate is just 33 Ks in 56.1 IP — roughly 5.3 K/9. Last 3 starts: 2 K, 1 K, 5 K — averaging 2.7 Ks per outing and going under 3.5 in two of three. His career vs CIN also shows suppressed K output: 1 K (May 2026), 2 K (Sep 2025), 7 K (Jun 2024 in 5.2 IP — his best outing, now an outlier). The +110 on the under reflects genuine market uncertainty, but the recent trend and 2026 rate both point under. Short outing risk (Outs line nearly even at 15.5) further caps his ceiling.
