Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Career vs Sugano: 8 PA, .143 AVG, 0.393 OPS in 2025 — a meaningful sample that shows Chisholm struggles badly against him. Season average of .232 is already below league average, and his last 7 days show just 0.564 OPS. Combined cold current form, a weak career BvP in 8 PA, and a vR OPS of only 0.742 make the under compelling. The market at +142 implies 58.7% chance he records a hit — our read is closer to 48-50% given the matchup-specific suppression. Opting for the under at positive odds (+142) provides value.

Chisholm has 2 HR in just 8 career PA vs Buehler (.750 AVG, 2.375 OPS). His 2025 exposure produced a 4.000 OPS in 3 PA, strongly suggesting at least one HR in that sample. With 19 HR on the season and genuine pull-side power, +540 represents value given a batter who has already gone deep twice in a very small career sample vs this specific pitcher. Petco Park's HR factor of 0.88 suppresses longballs, keeping this LOW confidence, but the BvP power history is rare and real.

Chisholm owns Walker Buehler: .750 AVG (6-for-8), 2.375 OPS, 2 HR in 8 career PA. His most recent exposure in 2025 produced a 4.000 OPS in 3 PA — the hottest single-season BvP sample in this entire matchup sheet. Buehler's career 14.54 ERA vs NYY confirms the lineup gets to him consistently. Chisholm is hitting .231 on the season but career .750 vs this specific arm is the dominant signal. Over 0.5 hits at -147 is well-supported.