Jeremy Peña

Peña is .375 AVG (3-for-8) with a 0.944 OPS career vs Burke. In 2026 specifically across 6 PA he posted a 0.900 OPS — consistent production against Burke regardless of year. He hits from the right side, Burke is RHP, and the season platoon split for Peña vs RHP is 0.836 OPS. The market at -233 implies 69.9% probability — that's aggressive pricing but the BvP data supports it. The best-priced angle here is combining the strong 2026 BvP (0.900 OPS in 6 PA) with his .325 OBP season profile.

Peña is 1-for-22 career vs Gilbert (.045 AVG, 0.132 OPS) across 24 PA spanning 2022–2025 with zero years showing meaningful production: 0.111 OPS (2022), 0.000 OPS (2023), 0.286 OPS (2024), 0.000 OPS (2025). Consistent futility over a legitimate sample. Getting +144 (implied 41.0%) on an under with a .045 career average against tonight's starter is strong plus-money value.

Peña career vs Martín Pérez: 15 PA, .154 AVG, 0.368 OPS — a very poor career matchup against this specific left-hander. Broken down by year: 2022 (13 PA, 0.334 OPS), 2023 (2 PA, 0.500 OPS). The 0.368 career OPS in a meaningful 15 PA sample is the strongest signal available. Peña's overall vL OPS is 0.714, below his vR split of 0.826, confirming the left-on-left disadvantage. With Pérez inducing weak contact rather than strikeouts, Peña's poor bat-to-ball results against him historically suggest a hitless game is likely. +182 offers real value against the 35.5% implied probability.