Jesús Luzardo

Luzardo has not started since Sep 7 due to left shoulder inflammation. His only appearance since then: a 4-pitch 8th inning on Sep 27 (0 IP credited, 0 Ks). Operating as a limited opener, he is realistically capped at 1-3 innings in this playoff start — well short of the buildup needed to reach 2.5 Ks. The market's +110 on the Under reflects hesitation the data does not justify given his documented injury and complete lack of recent buildup. Under 2.5 is the clearest edge on the board.

Luzardo is posting an 11.1 K/9 in 2026 (209 K in 169.2 IP). Last 3 starts: 6, 9, 9 Ks — averaging 8.0. In his three career starts vs ATL (all 2025), he logged 7, 7, and 6 Ks. Most ATL batters have struggled against him: Matt Olson .185/.518 OPS in 27 PA, Sean Murphy .083/.321 OPS in 13 PA, Mike Yastrzemski .000/.000 in 7 PA, Dominic Smith .125/.250 in 8 PA. No Drake Baldwin or Brewer Hicklen BvP data, meaning Luzardo likely hasn't faced them — a further strikeout-friendly unknown. Six days of extended rest. The 6.5 line at -156 reflects market respect but still offers edge given his 3-start average of 8 Ks and consistent performance vs this same lineup.

Luzardo's 2026 K/9 is 11.22 over 163.0 IP (203 K). Last 3 starts: 9, 9, 9 K — three straight identical outings, all well above the 6.5 line. In his only 2026 start vs ARI (Apr 10), he punched out 8 in 4.2 IP despite giving up 5 ER, showing the K upside is real regardless of results. The outs market prices him at 18.5 outs under (-161), implying roughly 6+ innings at his current K rate puts him comfortably over. ARI team pitching K/9 of 6.92 suggests a lineup that doesn't generate a ton of contact — soft contact team is still a strikeout team for a pitcher this dominant. Line at +116 is value against a pitcher this locked in.