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Throws R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-06-13 — 2026-09-12 · 2 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 1 past picks from 1 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Jun 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7800
Estes has been a non-strikeout arm all season. 2025 full-season: only 6 K in 11 IP. Last 3 starts: 1K, 3K, 2K — averaging 2.0 per outing against those opponents. COL team pitching K/9 is 7.43, reflecting a lineup that makes contact rather than punching out. The market is almost dead-even (-128/-109), meaning it isn't pricing the overwhelming recency evidence. Under 3.5 is the clear statistical call.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 34% | 93.3 | 34.8% | 0.303 | 92.7 | -6.2 | 15.1 | 2411 |
| CutterFC | 20% | 87.7 | 27.3% | 0.243 | 88.5 | 3.6 | 8.9 | 2458 |
| SweeperSW | 18% | 78.7 | 11.1% | 0.484 | 90.1 | 13.1 | 4.8 | 2526 |
| SliderSL | 13% | 83.0 | 20.0% | 0.299 | 91.0 | 7.1 | -1.0 | 2417 |
| SinkerSI | 8% | 90.2 | 28.6% | 0.613 | 88.2 | -13.8 | 13.4 | 2298 |
| ChangeupCH | 6% | 84.2 | 0.0% | 0.622 | 93.4 | -12.8 | 8.9 | 1889 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Athletics | 2 | 1 | 7.1 | 5 | 2 | 11.05 | 1.91 |
| 2025 · Athletics | 3 | 2 | 11.0 | 6 | 6 | 9.82 | 2.00 |
| 2024 · Oakland Athletics | 25 | 24 | 127.2 | 92 | 27 | 5.01 | 1.23 |
| 2023 · Oakland Athletics | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 7 | 2 | 7.20 | 1.40 |
| Career | 32 | 29 | 156.0 | 110 | 37 | 5.77 | 1.33 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 16 | 0.545 | 0.467 | 89.7 | 0.214 |
| 2026-06-13 | 17 | 0.276 | 0.312 | 92.0 | 0.077 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 34 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 27 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 25 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 23 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
