Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz is 0-for-11 career vs Skubal across three seasons (2024: 0 OPS in 3 PA, 2025: 0 OPS in 3 PA, 2026: 0 OPS in 5 PA). A .000 AVG and .000 OPS across 11 PAs is a persistent, consistent pattern — not a small-sample anomaly. Skubal's 2.68 ERA and 10.57 K/9 further suppress contact. At -106 odds (51.5% implied), the market is barely pricing in the historical dominance.

Ortiz is 1-for-6 (.167 AVG, 0.334 OPS) in career PA vs Boyd. His 2025 sample against Boyd — 4 of those 6 PA — produced 0.000 OPS. That is a hard 0 in his most recent exposure to this exact pitcher. Ortiz's 2026 season line is .252/.317/.380 — league average, nothing exceptional to override the BvP signal. Boyd is a LHP with extension rest (6 days) likely meaning sharper command. The market has the Over at -222 but the BvP data supports taking the other side at +154.

Ortiz's career vs Pérez reads: 5 PA, .750 AVG, 2.300 OPS, 1 HR. Broken down by year: 3.500 OPS in 2024 (3 PA) and 1.000 OPS in 2026 (2 PA) — the trend is favorable in both recent samples, though total PA is small (5). That said, the raw AVG (.750) is the strongest BvP number of any Brewers batter in this dataset against Pérez. With MIL projected to produce runs and Ortiz in an active lineup role (.890 OPS L28d), the BvP edge justifies the over at -175.